why doesn't a strong bullpen translate to a good record in close games?

statistical analysis in baseball has cast doubt on many of baseball's longstanding truisms, clutch hitting being a prime example.

but, perhaps there is no idea that is more sacred than the notion that good bullpens are the key to winning those pressure-filled, one-run games. baseball traditionalists say point to a team with a bad-record in one-run games, and they'll point to a bullpen who can't finish games.

on its face, this makes complete sense. it makes so much sense, in fact, that despite reams of statistical research that show otherwise, its hard to convince yourself there's any other explanation.

even casual fans can recall games where a reliever is brought in to protect a one-run lead only to give up a two-run homer and lose the game. and there you have it -- empirical evidence that bad bullpens lead to bad records in one-run games. had the team possessed a stronger relief corps, the opposing batters would have been set down in orderly fashion, preserving the one-run win.

this reasoning seems perfectly logical, and i suspect it largely accounts for why the idea persists that bad bullpens lead to poor records in one-run games.

however, other scenarios, and are often overlooked, lead to one-run games as well. say a team with a bad bullpen removes their starting pitcher with a three run lead. the relievers, not suprisingly, struggle and surrender two runs before finishing the game. here, the team with the bad bullpen picks up a win in a one-run game that a team with a good bullpen -- whose relievers would normally give up no runs -- would not.

then look at the corollary to the situation. say a team with a good bullpen removes their starter in a game where they trail by one run. the pen does their job and holds the other team scoreless. unfortunately, the team's offense puts up zeroes the rest of the way too and they lose the game by one run. now, having a good bullpen has actually hurt their record in one-run games by doing their job. conversely, a bad bullpen would be much more likely to turn that one-run deficit into a blowout, thereby avoiding the loss in the one-run game.

essentially, scenarios exist where having a bad bullpen has a negative effect on a team's win-loss record in one-run games. but scenarios also exist where having a bad bullpen has a positive effect on a team's win-loss record in one-run games. the same can be true for good bullpens. and eventually the law of large numbers says these even out.